Boston Bruins at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2022-12-11 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 3 Boston Bruins
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 44.8%
BOS: 55.2%
Expected Goals
VGK: 2.76
BOS: 3.33
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
L. Thompson
BOS
L. Ullmark
| Stat | VGK | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | L. Thompson | 27 | 24 | 3 | 88.9% | 2.32 | 0 | -0.68 |
| BOS | L. Ullmark | 31 | 30 | 1 | 96.8% | 2.95 | 1 | 1.95 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • VGK at home vs BOS: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | BOS 4 - 3 VGK | BOS | VGK |
| 2025-10-16 | VGK 6 - 5 BOS | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-03-20 | VGK 5 - 1 BOS | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-02-08 | BOS 3 - 4 VGK | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-02-29 | BOS 5 - 4 VGK | BOS | BOS |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VGK | 7 | 1 | 0.72 |
| 1 | BOS | 8 | 0 | 0.44 |
| 2 | VGK | 17 | 0 | 0.99 |
| 2 | BOS | 13 | 0 | 1.07 |
| 3 | VGK | 20 | 0 | 1.23 |
| 3 | BOS | 12 | 0 | 0.81 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 3 Boston Bruins
Expected: 2.8 - 3.3
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