Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-12-13 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 2 Seattle Kraken

Win Probability

TBL: 67.2%

SEA: 32.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.51

SEA: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	38	36	2	94.7%	2.44	1	0.44
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	30	24	6	80.0%	2.65	0	-3.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TBL at home vs SEA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	TBL 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	TBL
2026-03-17	SEA 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-02-23	TBL 4 - 1 SEA	TBL	TBL
2024-12-14	SEA 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-12-09	SEA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	SEA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	20	0	1.19
1	SEA	16	0	0.34
2	TBL	15	0	0.93
2	SEA	15	1	1.07
3	TBL	7	0	0.53
3	SEA	22	0	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 2 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9