Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-12-13 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

COL: 55.8%

PHI: 44.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.20

PHI: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

COL

P. Francouz

PHI

F. Sandstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	P. Francouz	28	26	2	92.9%	1.91	1	-0.09
PHI	F. Sandstrom	25	22	3	88.0%	1.73	1	-1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs PHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	COL 3 - 7 PHI	PHI	COL
2025-12-07	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-02	COL 2 - 0 PHI	COL	PHI
2024-11-18	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2024-01-20	PHI 4 - 7 COL	COL	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	14	0	0.76
1	PHI	9	1	0.66
2	COL	11	1	0.74
2	PHI	6	0	0.54
3	COL	7	0	0.23
3	PHI	19	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2