Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-12-15 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 53.1%

BUF: 46.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.46

BUF: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	21	17	4	81.0%	3.15	3	-0.85
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	41	39	2	95.1%	4.39	2	2.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • COL at home vs BUF: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-13	COL 6 - 3 BUF	COL	COL
2025-10-13	BUF 1 - 3 COL	COL	BUF
2025-01-02	COL 6 - 5 BUF	COL	COL
2024-12-03	BUF 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2023-12-13	COL 5 - 1 BUF	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	19	2	1.79
1	BUF	14	0	0.76
2	COL	18	0	1.27
2	BUF	10	0	0.79
3	COL	23	0	1.33
3	BUF	4	3	1.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9