New York Islanders at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2022-12-16 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 5 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 49.2%

NYI: 50.8%

Expected Goals

ARI: 3.09

NYI: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	34	30	4	88.2%	2.99	3	-1.01
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	29	24	5	82.8%	2.32	1	-2.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • ARI at home vs NYI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-01-04	ARI 1 - 5 NYI	NYI	ARI
2023-10-17	NYI 1 - 0 ARI	NYI	NYI
2022-12-16	ARI 5 - 4 NYI	ARI	NYI
2022-11-10	NYI 0 - 2 ARI	ARI	NYI
2022-01-21	NYI 4 - 0 ARI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	13	0	0.55
1	NYI	16	0	0.52
2	ARI	21	0	1.17
2	NYI	9	1	0.70
3	ARI	5	1	0.60
3	NYI	23	2	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 5 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0