New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-12-17 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 50.4%

NYR: 49.6%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.12

NYR: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 40%

PHI

C. Hart

NYR

J. Halak

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	35	29	6	82.9%	4.87	4	-1.13
NYR	J. Halak	32	29	3	90.6%	2.75	0	-0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PHI at home vs NYR: 1-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	PHI 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2026-02-26	NYR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	NYR
2026-01-17	PHI 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2025-12-20	NYR 5 - 4 PHI	NYR	NYR
2025-04-09	NYR 5 - 8 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	10	0	0.94
1	NYR	16	1	1.27
2	PHI	16	0	1.20
2	NYR	15	1	1.22
3	PHI	16	0	0.61
3	NYR	19	2	2.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2