Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-12-17 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

MTL: 44.5%

TBL: 55.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.86

TBL: 3.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

MTL

J. Allen

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	27	22	5	81.5%	2.74	1	-2.26
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	23	22	1	95.7%	2.44	2	1.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • MTL at home vs TBL: 4-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	1	1.13
1	TBL	14	1	1.22
2	MTL	7	1	0.92
2	TBL	12	0	1.06
3	MTL	8	0	0.40
3	TBL	7	0	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.6