Buffalo Sabres at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2022-12-17 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 2 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

ARI: 42.0%

BUF: 58.0%

Expected Goals

ARI: 3.07

BUF: 3.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 53%

ARI

C. Ingram - 24-24-0 | 0.907 SV% | 3.00 GAA

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	C. Ingram	43	38	5	88.4%	4.74	3	-0.26
BUF	C. Anderson	31	29	2	93.5%	2.85	0	0.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • ARI at home vs BUF: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2023-12-16	ARI 2 - 0 BUF	ARI	ARI
2023-12-11	BUF 5 - 2 ARI	BUF	BUF
2022-12-17	ARI 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2022-11-08	BUF 1 - 4 ARI	ARI	BUF
2022-01-29	ARI 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	9	0	0.58
1	BUF	18	0	1.17
2	ARI	20	0	1.51
2	BUF	13	0	0.94
3	ARI	12	0	0.76
3	BUF	20	3	2.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 2 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.6