New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-12-17 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 69.7%

NYI: 30.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.69

NYI: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

VGK

L. Thompson

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Thompson	26	21	5	80.8%	2.81	2	-2.19
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	38	36	2	94.7%	2.52	0	0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • VGK at home vs NYI: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	NYI 5 - 4 VGK	NYI	NYI
2025-11-13	VGK 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2025-02-04	NYI 2 - 1 VGK	NYI	VGK
2025-01-09	VGK 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2024-01-23	NYI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	0	0.65
1	NYI	12	0	0.31
2	VGK	23	0	0.89
2	NYI	13	0	0.72
3	VGK	21	0	0.98
3	NYI	10	2	1.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7