Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2022-12-19 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 52.3%

DAL: 47.7%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 2.88

DAL: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 54%

CBJ

Daniil Tarasov - 8-11-3 | 0.908 SV% | 3.18 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Daniil Tarasov	34	32	2	94.1%	3.89	3	1.89
DAL	Jake Oettinger	28	27	1	96.4%	2.75	1	1.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CBJ at home vs DAL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	CBJ 1 - 0 DAL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-21	DAL 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-02-25	CBJ 6 - 4 DAL	CBJ	DAL
2025-02-02	DAL 5 - 3 CBJ	DAL	DAL
2023-11-09	CBJ 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	20	0	0.91
1	DAL	17	1	1.24
2	CBJ	15	0	0.83
2	DAL	17	1	1.32
3	CBJ	12	1	1.01
3	DAL	13	1	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3