New York Islanders at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-12-19 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 0 New York Islanders (SO)

Win Probability

COL: 58.0%

NYI: 42.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.49

NYI: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	27	27	0	100.0%	1.79	0	1.79
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	48	47	1	97.9%	4.55	3	3.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • COL at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-04	NYI 6 - 3 COL	NYI	NYI
2025-11-16	COL 4 - 1 NYI	COL	COL
2025-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 COL	NYI	COL
2024-10-14	COL 2 - 6 NYI	NYI	COL
2024-01-02	COL 5 - 4 NYI	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	16	0	0.83
1	NYI	15	0	0.79
2	COL	22	3	2.02
2	NYI	13	0	0.56
3	COL	25	0	1.16
3	NYI	8	0	0.33
4	COL	3	0	0.40
4	NYI	1	0	0.05
5	COL	2	0	0.14
5	NYI	1	0	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 0 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1