Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-12-20 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

TOR: 51.8%

TBL: 48.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.15

TBL: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Matt Murray	19	18	1	94.7%	1.25	0	0.25
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	40	36	4	90.0%	4.83	2	0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 9-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	19	0	1.15
1	TBL	6	0	0.42
2	TOR	18	0	1.22
2	TBL	9	0	0.34
3	TOR	13	2	2.46
3	TBL	15	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2