Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2022-12-20 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

WPG: 52.5%

OTT: 47.5%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.27

OTT: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 47%

WPG

D. Rittich

OTT

C. Talbot

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	D. Rittich	36	35	1	97.2%	2.80	2	1.80
OTT	C. Talbot	24	19	5	79.2%	2.50	2	-2.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • WPG at home vs OTT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	OTT 4 - 2 WPG	OTT	OTT
2025-12-15	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-02-26	OTT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-28	WPG 4 - 2 OTT	WPG	WPG
2024-03-30	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	19	1	1.20
1	OTT	20	1	1.21
2	WPG	12	1	0.97
2	OTT	15	0	0.95
3	WPG	8	0	0.33
3	OTT	16	1	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1