Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-12-21 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 1 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

Win Probability

COL: 59.6%

MTL: 40.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.40

MTL: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	20	19	1	95.0%	1.48	0	0.48
MTL	J. Allen	36	34	2	94.4%	2.85	0	0.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • COL at home vs MTL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MTL 7 - 3 COL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-29	COL 7 - 2 MTL	COL	COL
2025-03-22	MTL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-04	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL
2024-03-26	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	COL	16	0.53
1	MTL	17	0.84
2	COL	20	1.34
2	MTL	6	0.25
3	COL	14	0.85
3	MTL	3	0.22
4	COL	1	0.14
4	MTL	1	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7