Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-12-22 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

TOR: 53.2%

PHI: 46.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.05

PHI: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

I. Samsonov

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	19	16	3	84.2%	2.12	1	-0.88
PHI	C. Hart	34	30	4	88.2%	5.02	3	1.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs PHI: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.96
1	PHI	6	0	0.39
2	TOR	22	1	1.72
2	PHI	9	0	0.53
3	TOR	13	2	2.34
3	PHI	13	1	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0