New York Islanders at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-12-22 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 3 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 49.6%

NYI: 50.4%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.99

NYI: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	18	15	3	83.3%	1.83	1	-1.17
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	34	29	5	85.3%	3.55	2	-1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • NYR at home vs NYI: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	NYR 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYR
2026-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-12-27	NYI 2 - 0 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-11-08	NYR 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYR
2025-04-10	NYI 2 - 9 NYR	NYR	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	13	0	0.71
1	NYI	6	0	0.20
2	NYR	17	1	1.25
2	NYI	11	1	1.04
3	NYR	22	1	1.59
3	NYI	10	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0