Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-12-22 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Washington Capitals (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 53.2%

WSH: 46.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.17

WSH: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

OTT

C. Talbot

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	C. Talbot	40	37	3	92.5%	4.21	1	1.21
WSH	D. Kuemper	25	23	2	92.0%	2.01	0	0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • OTT at home vs WSH: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	WSH
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	9	0	0.53
1	WSH	16	0	0.94
2	OTT	11	0	0.57
2	WSH	16	1	2.06
3	OTT	13	0	0.75
3	WSH	15	0	1.01
4	OTT	2	0	0.16
4	WSH	3	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0