Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-02-27 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 6 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

OTT: 53.3%

DET: 46.7%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.16

DET: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

OTT

C. Talbot

DET

M. Hellberg

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	C. Talbot	24	22	2	91.7%	2.25	1	0.25
DET	M. Hellberg	42	36	6	85.7%	4.01	0	-1.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • OTT at home vs DET: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	DET
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT
2025-03-27	DET 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	19	0	1.50
1	DET	9	1	0.65
2	OTT	18	0	1.27
2	DET	15	0	1.06
3	OTT	13	0	1.24
3	DET	7	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 6 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1