Winnipeg Jets at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-12-23 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

WSH: 59.8%

WPG: 40.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.13

WPG: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

WPG

D. Rittich

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	26	25	1	96.2%	2.51	1	1.51
WPG	D. Rittich	27	23	4	85.2%	3.78	2	-0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs WPG: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	WPG 5 - 1 WSH	WPG	WSH
2025-11-26	WSH 4 - 3 WPG	WSH	WSH
2025-03-25	WPG 3 - 2 WSH	WPG	WPG
2025-02-01	WSH 4 - 5 WPG	WPG	WSH
2024-03-24	WSH 3 - 0 WPG	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	0	0.96
1	WPG	8	0	0.49
2	WSH	12	0	0.64
2	WPG	8	1	0.84
3	WSH	10	2	2.18
3	WPG	19	0	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9