Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-12-23 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

DAL: 53.9%

MTL: 46.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.33

MTL: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	24	22	2	91.7%	1.75	1	-0.25
MTL	J. Allen	36	32	4	88.9%	3.92	3	-0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs MTL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	DAL 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-11-13	MTL 0 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-01-16	DAL 1 - 3 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-01-11	MTL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-10	MTL 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	1	0.93
1	MTL	11	1	0.89
2	DAL	18	1	1.17
2	MTL	11	0	0.40
3	DAL	18	1	1.82
3	MTL	9	0	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2