St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-12-23 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 4 St. Louis Blues (SO)

Win Probability

VGK: 54.3%

STL: 45.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.08

STL: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 55%

VGK

L. Thompson

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Thompson	31	26	5	83.9%	3.59	1	-1.41
STL	Jordan Binnington	36	30	6	83.3%	5.59	7	-0.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs STL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	VGK 4 - 2 STL	VGK	VGK
2026-01-02	STL 4 - 3 VGK	STL	VGK
2025-11-15	STL 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-23	STL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-20	VGK 4 - 5 STL	STL	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	11	2	1.03
1	STL	11	0	0.76
2	VGK	15	1	1.12
2	STL	19	0	0.95
3	VGK	10	0	0.79
3	STL	9	0	0.72
4	VGK	4	2	0.67
4	STL	1	0	0.07
5	VGK	4	2	1.98
5	STL	4	1	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 4 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1