Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-12-27 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Boston Bruins (SO)

Win Probability

OTT: 54.0%

BOS: 46.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.07

BOS: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

OTT

C. Talbot

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	C. Talbot	53	51	2	96.2%	4.28	0	2.28
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	35	32	3	91.4%	4.31	2	1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • OTT at home vs BOS: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	BOS 2 - 6 OTT	OTT	BOS
2025-11-13	OTT 5 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-06	BOS 3 - 2 OTT	BOS	OTT
2025-10-27	OTT 7 - 2 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-03-13	OTT 6 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	12	1	1.35
1	BOS	16	0	1.28
2	OTT	14	0	1.00
2	BOS	12	0	0.69
3	OTT	7	0	0.21
3	BOS	31	0	1.69
4	OTT	7	0	0.96
4	BOS	4	0	0.41
5	OTT	3	1	0.79
5	BOS	3	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3