Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2022-12-27 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

Win Probability

STL: 43.6%

TOR: 56.4%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.71

TOR: 3.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 54%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	37	32	5	86.5%	4.00	1	-1.00
TOR	I. Samsonov	34	30	4	88.2%	2.86	0	-1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	STL 5 - 1 TOR	STL	STL
2025-11-18	TOR 3 - 2 STL	TOR	STL
2024-11-02	STL 4 - 2 TOR	STL	TOR
2024-10-24	TOR 1 - 5 STL	STL	TOR
2024-02-19	STL 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	16	0	1.16
1	TOR	9	0	0.68
2	STL	13	0	0.56
2	TOR	20	1	1.61
3	STL	16	0	1.04
3	TOR	18	0	1.24
4	STL	2	0	0.10
4	TOR	5	0	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.7 - 3.4