Colorado Avalanche at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2022-12-27 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 6 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 47.3%

COL: 52.7%

Expected Goals

ARI: 3.12

COL: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

ARI

C. Ingram - 24-24-0 | 0.907 SV% | 3.00 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	C. Ingram	31	28	3	90.3%	2.57	0	-0.43
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	33	27	6	81.8%	3.49	3	-2.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ARI at home vs COL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-18	COL 4 - 3 ARI	COL	COL
2023-12-27	ARI 5 - 4 COL	ARI	COL
2023-12-23	COL 4 - 1 ARI	COL	COL
2023-11-30	ARI 4 - 3 COL	ARI	COL
2023-03-26	ARI 3 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	17	1	1.21
1	COL	14	0	0.66
2	ARI	14	1	1.31
2	COL	14	0	0.90
3	ARI	13	1	0.96
3	COL	16	0	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 6 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3