Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-12-28 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

TBL: 60.0%

MTL: 40.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.72

MTL: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	26	25	1	96.2%	2.04	1	1.04
MTL	J. Allen	38	34	4	89.5%	3.99	1	-0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs MTL: 7-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	0	1.06
1	MTL	10	1	0.72
2	TBL	18	0	1.69
2	MTL	11	0	0.80
3	TBL	15	1	1.24
3	MTL	8	0	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.7 - 3.1