Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-12-28 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 5 Detroit Red Wings (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 50.2%

DET: 49.8%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.07

DET: 3.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

PIT

C. DeSmith

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	46	41	5	89.1%	4.51	3	-0.49
DET	Ville Husso	31	27	4	87.1%	3.66	1	-0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs DET: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	1	1.49
1	DET	14	0	1.14
2	PIT	17	0	0.78
2	DET	17	2	1.37
3	PIT	13	0	1.20
3	DET	20	1	1.77
4	PIT	2	0	0.19
4	DET	3	0	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4