Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-12-29 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 54.1%

OTT: 45.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.14

OTT: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

WSH

D. Kuemper

OTT

C. Talbot

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	45	41	4	91.1%	3.94	1	-0.06
OTT	C. Talbot	23	20	3	87.0%	2.22	2	-0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • WSH at home vs OTT: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	WSH
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	9	0	0.40
1	OTT	19	1	1.25
2	WSH	16	2	1.42
2	OTT	27	0	1.61
3	WSH	9	0	0.33
3	OTT	13	0	0.78
4	WSH	1	0	0.07
4	OTT	2	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1