Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2022-12-29 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 50.3%

DAL: 49.7%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.47

DAL: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	43	39	4	90.7%	3.90	3	-0.10
DAL	Jake Oettinger	24	23	1	95.8%	2.14	0	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • MIN at home vs DAL: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	13	0	0.80
1	DAL	19	0	0.88
2	MIN	10	0	0.53
2	DAL	14	1	1.02
3	MIN	18	0	0.81
3	DAL	22	2	2.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2