Philadelphia Flyers at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2022-12-29 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 52.9%

PHI: 47.1%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.39

PHI: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

SJS

K. Kahkonen

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	K. Kahkonen	26	22	4	84.6%	1.95	1	-2.05
PHI	Samuel Ersson	28	25	3	89.3%	3.16	2	0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SJS at home vs PHI: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	SJS
2025-12-09	PHI 4 - 1 SJS	PHI	PHI
2024-12-31	SJS 0 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI
2024-11-11	PHI 4 - 3 SJS	PHI	PHI
2024-03-12	PHI 3 - 2 SJS	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	17	2	1.43
1	PHI	14	1	1.02
2	SJS	15	0	1.19
2	PHI	11	0	0.20
3	SJS	8	0	0.55
3	PHI	8	0	0.58
4	SJS	0	0	0.00
4	PHI	1	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3