Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-12-31 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 9 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

WSH: 61.1%

MTL: 38.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.48

MTL: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	33	31	2	93.9%	3.09	1	1.09
MTL	J. Allen	40	31	9	77.5%	4.52	3	-4.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • WSH at home vs MTL: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	0	1.10
1	MTL	17	0	0.87
2	WSH	17	3	1.69
2	MTL	17	1	1.69
3	WSH	21	0	1.73
3	MTL	11	0	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 9 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2