Arizona Coyotes at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-12-31 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 Arizona Coyotes

Win Probability

TBL: 61.0%

ARI: 39.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.27

ARI: 2.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 48%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	31	28	3	90.3%	1.88	0	-1.12
ARI	K. Vejmelka	35	30	5	85.7%	3.67	2	-1.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs ARI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-01-25	TBL 6 - 3 ARI	TBL	TBL
2023-11-28	ARI 3 - 1 TBL	ARI	ARI
2023-02-15	ARI 1 - 0 TBL	ARI	ARI
2022-12-31	TBL 5 - 3 ARI	TBL	TBL
2022-02-11	ARI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	ARI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	20	1	1.27
1	ARI	14	0	0.69
2	TBL	16	0	1.19
2	ARI	10	0	0.37
3	TBL	13	1	1.21
3	ARI	14	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.3 - 2.5