Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2022-12-31 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 45.2%

OTT: 54.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.00

OTT: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

DET

M. Hellberg

OTT

C. Talbot

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	M. Hellberg	23	21	2	91.3%	2.69	2	0.69
OTT	C. Talbot	25	21	4	84.0%	2.31	0	-1.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • DET at home vs OTT: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	DET
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT
2025-03-27	DET 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	8	0	0.26
1	OTT	16	0	0.78
2	DET	14	0	0.99
2	OTT	9	0	0.48
3	DET	15	0	1.06
3	OTT	14	2	1.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2