Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-12-31 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

COL: 49.9%

TOR: 50.1%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.27

TOR: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	32	26	6	81.2%	2.92	1	-3.08
TOR	Matt Murray	28	26	2	92.9%	2.05	1	0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • COL at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	TOR 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-12	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL
2025-03-19	TOR 2 - 1 COL	TOR	TOR
2025-03-08	COL 7 - 4 TOR	COL	COL
2024-02-24	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	6	0	0.27
1	TOR	14	0	0.82
2	COL	20	1	1.03
2	TOR	14	0	0.61
3	COL	14	0	0.75
3	TOR	9	1	1.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1