Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2023-01-03 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

WPG: 52.9%

CGY: 47.1%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.18

CGY: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	35	33	2	94.3%	2.66	0	0.66
CGY	J. Markstrom	25	22	3	88.0%	2.03	0	-0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • WPG at home vs CGY: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-15	CGY 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-10-24	WPG 5 - 3 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-10-20	CGY 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-01-26	WPG 5 - 2 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-01-18	WPG 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	WPG	15	0.48
1	CGY	20	0.95
2	WPG	9	0.68
2	CGY	13	0.95
3	WPG	17	0.87
3	CGY	16	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1