Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2023-01-03 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

CHI: 28.3%

TBL: 71.7%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.45

TBL: 3.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

CHI

A. Stalock

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	A. Stalock	29	25	4	86.2%	3.94	3	-0.06
TBL	B. Elliott	26	25	1	96.2%	2.15	1	1.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CHI at home vs TBL: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	CHI 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-23	TBL 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-28	TBL 1 - 4 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-24	CHI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-11-16	CHI 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	15	0	0.90
1	TBL	9	0	0.84
2	CHI	8	1	1.03
2	TBL	24	0	1.57
3	CHI	11	0	0.21
3	TBL	12	3	1.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.5 - 3.7