New York Islanders at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions
2023-01-03 • Rogers Arena
Vancouver Canucks 2 - 6 New York Islanders
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VAN: 47.8%
NYI: 52.2%
Expected Goals
VAN: 3.03
NYI: 3.27
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 50%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VAN
S. Martin
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA
| Stat | VAN | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | S. Martin | 29 | 23 | 6 | 79.3% | 3.36 | 3 | -2.64 |
| NYI | Ilya Sorokin | 26 | 24 | 2 | 92.3% | 2.38 | 1 | 0.38 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VAN at home vs NYI: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | VAN 3 - 4 NYI | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-12-19 | NYI 1 - 4 VAN | VAN | NYI |
| 2025-03-26 | NYI 2 - 5 VAN | VAN | VAN |
| 2024-11-14 | VAN 2 - 5 NYI | NYI | VAN |
| 2024-01-09 | NYI 2 - 5 VAN | VAN | NYI |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VAN | 22 | 0 | 1.21 |
| 1 | NYI | 11 | 1 | 0.80 |
| 2 | VAN | 12 | 1 | 0.82 |
| 2 | NYI | 21 | 1 | 1.50 |
| 3 | VAN | 8 | 0 | 0.35 |
| 3 | NYI | 7 | 1 | 1.06 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 52.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Vancouver Canucks 2 - 6 New York Islanders
Expected: 3.0 - 3.3
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