Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2023-01-04 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 5 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

MIN: 58.0%

TBL: 42.0%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.25

TBL: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	35	34	1	97.1%	3.02	1	2.02
TBL	B. Elliott	33	28	5	84.8%	3.15	1	-1.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • MIN at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	TBL 6 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-03	MIN 5 - 1 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-11-01	MIN 5 - 3 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-10-24	TBL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-01-18	TBL 7 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	15	0	0.89
1	TBL	14	0	0.79
2	MIN	16	0	1.33
2	TBL	16	1	1.24
3	MIN	13	1	0.93
3	TBL	21	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 5 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2