Arizona Coyotes at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-01-05 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Win Probability

PHI: 58.6%

ARI: 41.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.19

ARI: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

PHI

C. Hart

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	23	21	2	91.3%	1.53	0	-0.47
ARI	K. Vejmelka	34	28	6	82.4%	3.46	2	-2.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs ARI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-12	PHI 5 - 3 ARI	PHI	PHI
2023-12-07	ARI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-01-05	PHI 6 - 2 ARI	PHI	PHI
2022-12-11	ARI 5 - 4 PHI	ARI	PHI
2021-12-11	ARI 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	ARI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	18	0	0.90
1	ARI	7	0	0.54
2	PHI	21	1	1.93
2	ARI	11	0	0.65
3	PHI	9	1	0.63
3	ARI	10	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8