Seattle Kraken at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-01-05 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 5 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 57.7%

SEA: 42.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.63

SEA: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 44%

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

SEA

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Matt Murray	26	21	5	80.8%	1.68	0	-3.32
SEA	M. Jones	27	26	1	96.3%	3.30	0	2.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TOR at home vs SEA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	SEA 5 - 2 TOR	SEA	SEA
2025-10-18	TOR 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	SEA
2025-02-06	SEA 1 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-10-31	TOR 4 - 1 SEA	TOR	TOR
2024-01-21	SEA 1 - 3 TOR	TOR	SEA

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TOR	14	1.13
1	SEA	7	0.44
2	TOR	18	1.26
2	SEA	15	0.87
3	TOR	12	0.90
3	SEA	11	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 5 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0