Nashville Predators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-01-06 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Nashville Predators

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 57.9%

NSH: 42.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.32

NSH: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

NSH

K. Lankinen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	21	18	3	85.7%	2.26	0	-0.74
NSH	K. Lankinen	32	30	2	93.8%	2.15	1	0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs NSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	WSH 4 - 2 NSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-11	NSH 3 - 2 WSH	NSH	NSH
2025-01-11	NSH 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	NSH
2024-11-06	WSH 3 - 2 NSH	WSH	WSH
2023-12-30	WSH 2 - 3 NSH	NSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	0	0.68
1	NSH	13	0	0.83
2	WSH	8	1	0.89
2	NSH	13	0	1.05
3	WSH	17	0	0.58
3	NSH	7	0	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1