Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2023-01-06 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

WPG: 52.0%

TBL: 48.0%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.01

TBL: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 45%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	28	26	2	92.9%	2.84	1	0.84
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	20	16	4	80.0%	3.10	4	-0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • WPG at home vs TBL: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	WPG 4 - 1 TBL	WPG	TBL
2026-01-29	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-14	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-03	WPG 7 - 4 TBL	WPG	WPG
2024-01-02	WPG 4 - 2 TBL	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	6	1	0.53
1	TBL	15	1	1.08
2	WPG	17	2	1.49
2	TBL	11	0	0.50
3	WPG	12	1	1.09
3	TBL	18	0	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 2.7