Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-01-07 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

TOR: 77.5%

DET: 22.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.60

DET: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

TOR

I. Samsonov

DET

M. Hellberg

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	23	22	1	95.7%	2.07	0	1.07
DET	M. Hellberg	29	25	4	86.2%	3.78	2	-0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • TOR at home vs DET: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	0	0.79
1	DET	14	0	1.01
2	TOR	15	0	0.80
2	DET	14	0	0.71
3	TOR	18	2	2.19
3	DET	7	0	0.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0