Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-01-08 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 1 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

DAL: 55.3%

FLA: 44.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.51

FLA: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	28	27	1	96.4%	3.27	3	2.27
FLA	Spencer Knight	34	29	5	85.3%	3.47	5	-1.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • DAL at home vs FLA: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	DAL 0 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-11-01	FLA 4 - 3 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-02	FLA 4 - 2 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-01	DAL 4 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2024-03-12	DAL 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	12	0	0.57
1	FLA	19	3	1.77
2	DAL	22	4	1.77
2	FLA	16	0	0.96
3	DAL	13	1	1.13
3	FLA	10	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 1 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0