Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-01-08 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 64.0%

TOR: 36.0%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.00

TOR: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

PHI

C. Hart

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	35	29	6	82.9%	3.20	1	-2.80
TOR	Matt Murray	36	34	2	94.4%	3.27	1	1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs TOR: 1-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	16	1	0.96
1	TOR	17	1	1.17
2	PHI	19	0	1.20
2	TOR	14	0	0.98
3	PHI	21	0	1.12
3	TOR	14	0	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1