New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2023-01-10 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 5 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 57.3%

NJD: 42.7%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.42

NJD: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NJD

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	23	18	5	78.3%	4.87	5	-0.13
NJD	V. Vanecek	28	25	3	89.3%	3.85	4	0.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • CAR at home vs NJD: 15-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CAR 5 - 2 NJD	CAR	CAR
2026-01-17	NJD 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-01-04	NJD 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-10-09	CAR 6 - 3 NJD	CAR	CAR
2025-04-29	CAR 5 - 4 NJD	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	22	1	1.38
1	NJD	12	1	1.06
2	CAR	25	2	1.82
2	NJD	10	1	1.36
3	CAR	8	1	0.64
3	NJD	11	3	2.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 5 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0