Seattle Kraken at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-01-10 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 57.6%

SEA: 42.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.13

SEA: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

BUF

E. Comrie

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	E. Comrie	22	18	4	81.8%	3.13	1	-0.87
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	35	32	3	91.4%	3.71	2	0.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BUF at home vs SEA: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	BUF 3 - 2 SEA	BUF	BUF
2025-12-14	SEA 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-01-20	SEA 6 - 4 BUF	SEA	BUF
2025-01-11	BUF 2 - 6 SEA	SEA	BUF
2024-03-18	SEA 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	SEA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	1	0.60
1	SEA	11	0	0.74
2	BUF	14	0	1.11
2	SEA	10	0	1.08
3	BUF	24	1	2.01
3	SEA	11	1	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1