Vancouver Canucks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-01-10 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Win Probability

PIT: 55.8%

VAN: 44.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.29

VAN: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

PIT

C. DeSmith

VAN

S. Martin

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	24	20	4	83.3%	2.93	2	-1.07
VAN	S. Martin	36	31	5	86.1%	4.34	0	-0.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs VAN: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	VAN 2 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-10-21	PIT 5 - 1 VAN	PIT	PIT
2024-11-27	PIT 5 - 4 VAN	PIT	PIT
2024-10-26	VAN 4 - 3 PIT	VAN	VAN
2024-02-27	VAN 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	24	0	2.13
1	VAN	10	1	0.97
2	PIT	9	0	0.60
2	VAN	10	0	0.88
3	PIT	16	0	1.61
3	VAN	18	1	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0