Dallas Stars at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-01-10 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 2 Dallas Stars (SO)

Win Probability

NYI: 48.2%

DAL: 51.8%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.05

DAL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	29	27	2	93.1%	3.92	2	1.92
DAL	Jake Oettinger	31	30	1	96.8%	3.82	1	2.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYI at home vs DAL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	NYI 2 - 1 DAL	NYI	DAL
2025-11-18	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-02-23	NYI 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	NYI
2024-10-12	DAL 3 - 0 NYI	DAL	DAL
2024-02-26	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	19	0	1.09
1	DAL	7	1	1.04
2	NYI	11	0	1.01
2	DAL	14	0	0.69
3	NYI	16	1	1.29
3	DAL	11	0	0.87
4	NYI	2	0	0.24
4	DAL	4	0	0.47
5	NYI	3	0	0.19
5	DAL	3	1	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3