Florida Panthers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-01-10 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 5 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 58.6%

FLA: 41.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.28

FLA: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	38	33	5	86.8%	4.40	3	-0.60
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	31	27	4	87.1%	2.79	1	-1.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • COL at home vs FLA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	FLA 2 - 1 COL	FLA	FLA
2025-12-11	COL 6 - 2 FLA	COL	COL
2025-01-06	COL 3 - 1 FLA	COL	FLA
2024-11-23	FLA 4 - 7 COL	COL	COL
2024-02-10	FLA 4 - 0 COL	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	16	1	0.97
1	FLA	17	1	0.88
2	COL	11	0	0.87
2	FLA	21	1	1.77
3	COL	17	0	0.95
3	FLA	14	1	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 5 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0