Dallas Stars at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-01-12 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 1 Dallas Stars (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 49.3%

DAL: 50.7%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.17

DAL: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	25	24	1	96.0%	1.64	1	0.64
DAL	Jake Oettinger	31	29	2	93.5%	2.41	0	0.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYR at home vs DAL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	DAL 2 - 0 NYR	DAL	DAL
2025-12-02	NYR 3 - 2 DAL	NYR	NYR
2025-01-07	NYR 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-20	DAL 1 - 3 NYR	NYR	DAL
2024-02-20	NYR 3 - 1 DAL	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	10	0	0.30
1	DAL	6	0	0.08
2	NYR	16	0	0.97
2	DAL	13	1	1.10
3	NYR	16	0	0.77
3	DAL	10	0	0.47
4	NYR	2	0	0.37
4	DAL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3